In this week's newsletter;
Recent Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Crisis and the Effects of Central Banks' Attitudes on Bitcoin and American Stock Exchanges
State of the Dollar and Bond Market
Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank
Both institutions are among Europe's most important investment banks and asset management firms. According to the official data of Credit Suisse, the capital adequacy level is 13.5%. The mandatory rate is 10% and its competitors are between 12-14%. After the great depreciation of the shares, it turned into a viral spread by those who shared similarities with the 2008 crisis. I can't say that this is an effect of the liquidity crisis in the world in general and it is an excessive risk. At least for now, I don't think it should cause serious fear.
The 25-point drop in the expectations for the peak of the Fed's 2023 policy rates provided a short-term relief in the Global Stock Exchanges.
It was also important news that the central bank of England announced that it would buy bonds. This news may have triggered other central banks later on.
USD liquidity source: https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes/status/1577085061291134976
There was a small-scale increase in liquidity due to the global liquidity crises that countries said would cause serious problems and the actions they took. It is still the continuation of the bear market and we cannot say that something will change in the big picture with this small movement, but bottoms or reaction areas are formed with such movements.
It will still be important in which direction the main actor Fed will move. The upcoming elections and important data will be crucial in the decision to be made. October 5 employment data will play an important role. In my opinion, I think that the bad course in the employment markets will now be very effective in the Fed's pivot or short-term softening. 13 October CPI will be the most important data. The fact that the concept of stagflation is not mentioned does not change the fact that the economy is in stagflation. Note that the upside risks here are against the trend.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lzdtnUSW/
We need to see withdrawals in the American decades for respite from the liquidity crisis in the market. There was a serious pullback for a normal day in the world, but since we are in very different days and it is in a very clear uptrend, the region 3.06 and below seems to work as support. If 3.99 is exceeded again, if this region is not lost again, it will cause serious liquidity problems and the continuation of the decline of global stock markets.
Dollar Index:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5iv3JjEg/
In the long run, it may have reached the point where there may be resistance in the dollar index and a trend reversal. I believe that the decline will continue unless 113.53 is won again.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GZG1vdoS/
On the daily chart, I will wait for the red zone below 110 to work as support and if it finds support, 111,794 will go lower unless it is crossed with strong candles. There are still no clear lines that the trend is returning and it may make a new high, but I think it also demonstrates weaknesses.
Bitcoin
I do not think that a very positive outcome can be obtained from the quarterly and monthly candles that close at the end of September. So, let me start directly with the weekly chart.
Weekly chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/DRrwPbew/
The region, which we specified as weekly support in the first weekly analysis in our application, and which was the source of very nice rises afterwards, still works as support. A bullish attempt has been failing for two weeks with the sweep of the 18510 bottom. We are at a point where price is gathering strength for the next hard move. I think not losing the bottom of 18510 can lead to the range of 20574 and 21038 here. After gaining this region, I think that as long as 19555 and monthly opening region are not lost in the returns, 23174 targeted positions on the upside can be built. The loss of 18510 may trigger the liquidity move of 17622. I think it will result in deeper declines if it does not regain after closings below this level, that is, it does not deviate. As the clearest support, 13716 catches my eye.
Daily
The weekly chart contains a bit of confusion, sorry for that, everything will be clearer in the daily.
Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/iSm1Mxfb/
In addition to my weekly levels and ideas, I've included two blue boxes here that I think can work as resistance. Weekly levels 21038 and 20574 will determine the direction, closes above and below will be important, however I will take my trades more on the daily chart. I think 19555 and the monthly opening test or the loss of 18510 are ideal levels to be included in the trade. Closings above 20173 can be evaluated when the test comes to the levels I have just mentioned. 21368 may be the first resistance. At this point, weakness in the small time frame causes a decline.
